3 Big Questions for the Final

And so the day is finally here.  Euro 2012 has but one final act to play out: a mouth-watering Spain and Italy rematch to determine who lifts the Cup in Kiev.  As we are just hours from kickoff, let's look at the 3 big questions that will determine who wins Euro 2012.

1) Who starts up front for Spain?

Torres? Fabregas? Negredo?   Which Spain will manager Vicente Del Bosque opt for today?  Spain started with Cesc Fabregas in the 'false 9' role when Spain and Italy drew 1-1 in their group stage match up.  Although Fabregas did get the equalizing goal in that match, it was obvious that Torres' introduction made Spain a bit more dangerous in attack.  We will soon discover whether Del Bosque believes that the impact was simply because of tired Italian legs, or whether it is a better option tactically to start with a true striker.

2) How does Italy line up defensively?

Italy has the same sort of question to answer as Spain.  Do they go with what got them the draw in their first match, or do they change it up?  Italy played in a 3-5-2 formation against Spain earlier in the tournament, however they have also played a traditional four man defense on a couple of occasions.  Italy have had success with both defensive tactics, so it will be interesting to see if Cesare Prandelli chooses the formation that worked initially against Spain, or the formation that they've had more recent success with.

3) Who wins the midfield battle?

We all know Spain will have more possession of the ball, as they always do.  But on which end of the field will Spain play their tiki-taka?  It's a difficult enough task getting the ball from Spain's ball control wizards (Xavi, Iniesta, David Silva), but it's even more difficult to keep the ball once you do get it.  The Spanish swarm like wasps when the ball is lost, and once you get past the wasps you have to get beyond the world class midfield brawn in Sergio Busquets and Xabi Alonso.

However, if there's any midfield that can challenge Spain, it is Italy's.  Andrea Pirlo has been the player of the tournament thus far, orchestrating this Italian midfield without a single drop of sweat.  He will have to be at his best once again today if the Italians want to have any hope of winning this midfield battle.

The Final Four: Preview and Predictions

So, with the semi-finals looming, let's take a look at the four remaining teams in Euro 2012.

Portugal


Results:

L 0-1 to Germany
W 3-2 over Denmark
W 2-1 over Netherlands
W 1-0 over Czech Republic

Star man: Cristiano Ronaldo

All eyes will be on the Real Madrid superstar.  Ronaldo has met the other-worldly expectations that the football universe has placed on his shoulders (so far, at least), scoring three important goals in the last two matches.  The Portuguese attack relies so heavily on their superstar wingers, Ronaldo and Nani, but it will be the former that the football world will expect to deliver yet again.


One to watch: Pepe

The Portugal defense has been solid all tournament, with Pepe and Bruno Alves proving a difficult central pairing to break down.  Whether or not it will hold up for 90 minutes of Spanish probing is a big question, however.  The continued success of Portugal's defense will hinge on the play of Pepe, who has plenty of experience playing with, and against many of Spain's superstars.

Spain


Results:

D 1-1 with Italy
W 4-0 over Ireland
W 1-0 over Croatia
W 2-0 over France

Star man:  Andres Iniesta

Spain is the epitome of team football.  However,  the most influential player in the team right now is attacking midfielder/winger Andres Iniesta.  The Barcelona star has a hand in seemingly every Spanish goal, and the Portugal defense will have to keep his surging runs and incisive passing in check.

One to watch:  Alvaro Arbeloa

Arbeloa is by no means one of the stars in the Spain team.  However,  the Spanish right-back will be pivotal in minimizing Cristiano Ronaldo's impact on the game.  Ronaldo loves to operate on the left wing, and it will be Arbeloa's job to negate Ronaldo's counter-attacking threat on that side of the pitch.



Prediction: Spain 1-0 Portugal
Spain makes use of all the possession they will undoubtedly have in this one, scoring an early 2nd half goal.  Portugal has to settle for only a few chances on the counter, and Ronaldo's  Euro magic is stifled by the Spanish defense yet again (just like World Cup 2010).




Germany


Results:

W 1-0 over Portugal
W 2-1 over Netherlands
W 2-1 over Denmark
W 4-2 over Greece

Star man: Mesut Ozil

Ozil is the maestro behind the German attacking juggernaut.  As we've seen in this tournament, it doesn't matter who starts up top, (Gomez or Klose) or who else is around him (Podolski and Muller, or Reus and Schurrle), Ozil will create opportunities for you.

One to watch: Mario Gomez

Gomez was clinical in front of goal through the group stages, scoring three goals.  However, Gomez was dropped from the starting lineup in favor of Miroslav Klose for the Germany quarterfinal win over Greece.  It will be interesting to see whether Gomez picks up where he left off, or if his confidence takes a hit because of this.  Either way, his presence will be vital to breaking down the defensively stout Italians.

Italy


Results:

D 1-1 with Spain
D 1-1 with Croatia
W 2-0 over Ireland
W 0-0 (penalties) over England

Star man: Andrea Pirlo

Andrea Pirlo is 33 years old, yet he is still the heartbeat of this Italian side.  Pirlo dictates the game for the Italians with his passing and awareness.  If the Germans allow the deep-lying midfielder time and space on the ball, they could be in for a long and hard-fought night.

One to watch: Gianluigi Buffon

The Italians won't win a high scoring game against the Germans.  They simply cannot boast the same offensive firepower.  It will be up to the Italian captain Buffon to keep the game within reach, so that maybe the likes of Mario Balotelli or Antonio Cassano can steal a late winner from the Germans.

Prediction: Germany 2-0 Italy
Germany breaks down the determined Italian defense late in the first half, forcing the Italians to come out and attack more in the second.  Germany buries another on the counter-attack, setting up a Euro 2012 Final with the two best sides in the world, and a rematch of the Euro 2008 Final, Spain vs Germany.

Group A Discarded

After two quarterfinals matches done and dusted, we have no surprises.  Group of Death powers, Portugal and Germany, have discarded their Group A opposition and advanced into the semifinals of Euro 2012.

Portugal dominated the Czech Republic, and finally were able to send the Czechs packing with a 79th minute  winning header from Cristiano Ronaldo.

Ronaldo is silencing his doubters in this tournament.

The Germans also put in a dominant display against the Greeks today.  The Greeks could hardly get a sniff of the ball, and it seemed like Philipp Lahm's 39th minute goal would be enough to get them to the semis.  However, Greece do not die that easily, and they fought back once again, leveling the score through a quick counter-attacking goal from striker Georgios Samaras.

While football fans across the world may have envisioned the 2004 Euro being reenacted in front of their eyes, all the Samaras goal did was awaken the beast that is the German national team.

Germany responded with three goals (Khedira 61,Klose 68, Reus 74), and would finally send this resilient Greek side packing.

Although it was another impressive display from the Germans, there are now a few question marks that manager Joachim Low will need to sort out.  Low surprisingly made changes in his team selection, despite the perfect winning record in the group stages.  He opted to give starts to Miroslav Klose, Andre Shurrle, and Marco Reus, as opposed to his traditionally favored line of Mario Gomez, Lukas Podolski, and Thomas Muller.  Perhaps it was simply Low's disbelief in the strength of the Greeks, that it was an opportunity to give game time to some peripheral players.  Whatever the reason, 34 year old striker Miroslav Klose took advantage of it.  The veteran Lazio man was dangerous all night with his movement, and even scored one of his patented headers to top it off.  It will be interesting to see whether he has done enough for Low to give him the nod again in the semifinals.

Is Mario Gomez's job safe?

While Klose impressed, German right back Jerome Boateng struggled defensively.  The Bayern Munich man was responsible for both of the Greek goals.  He allowed Georgios Samaras to sneak behind him for Greece's 55th minute equalizer, and he also was reckless later in the game, being penalized for a handball in the box.  While Boateng certainly has the talent to remain a starter for this German side, we will soon find out if this performance was enough to cost him the starting right-back job.

Group C and D Wrap Up

The favorites from C and D have all advanced: Spain, Italy, England, and France are all through to the next round.  The stage is now set.

Czech Republic

v

Portugal

Spain

v

France

Germany 

v

Greece

England

v

Italy

Unfortunately for the neutral fan, a host nation has not advanced to the quarterfinals.  Both Poland and Ukraine have played some impressive football at times in the group stages.  They definitely gave their supporters some moments to get excited about (Lewandowski's opener, Shevchenko's brace come to mind),  but neither of the co-hosts proved to have that cutting edge to get out of the group.

Disappointment for the host nations, despite displaying some good football in the tournament.

The quarterfinals boast some very competitive match-ups.  Its difficult to see the Greeks overcoming the Germans, but each of the other nations should feel like they have a great chance to progress to the semifinals.    

The match-up that catches my eye is Spain v France.  Spain won their group, but are coming off of a less than impressive 1-0 win over Croatia.  The Spanish have not been as dangerous as many would like them to be, but the Spanish not at their best is still better than almost any team in the world.

Meanwhile, the French had appeared to be the class of Group A, up until their disappointing 0-2 loss to Sweden today. It will be interesting to see which of these nations will regain their form, and gain some confidence going into the semifinals of Euro 2012.

Group A and B Wrap Up

Half of the knockout stage is now set.

Czech Republic have won group A, and will take on Portugal in the first quarterfinal on Thursday.  Germany have won the group of death in dominant fashion, and will face Greece on Friday.

While there are many talking points between these two groups (perfect Germany, Greece prevailing, Russia ousted, etc.), the real story is the fall from grace of the Netherlands.  The Dutch were playing in extra-time in the World Cup Final just two years ago.  Now they leave Euro 2012 with 0 points.  While the Dutch struggled all over the pitch in this tournament, the most glaring explanation for their letdown is the defense.

The team defense of the Netherlands was tested against some of the world's greatest national teams, and it was repeatedly embarrassing.  For all of the offensive firepower the Dutch have, the defense seems a barren wasteland at the moment.  Center-backs John Heitinga, Joris Mathijsen, and Ron Vlaar were ripped apart in all three group matches.  Eighteen year old left back, Jetro Willems, was continually caught out of position and has yet to look comfortable playing at this level.  And Gregory van der Viel, supposedly one of the world's rising right backs, was tormented by Cristiano Ronaldo for the entire match today.

Netherlands manager Bert van Marwijk had no answers to the attacking talent in Group B.

It is a team game, and a team's back line is equally vital to a side's success as the goalscorers.  Denmark, Portugal, and Germany are all more complete teams than the Dutch at this point in time.  Oh what a difference two years can make.

France, England Take Care of Business

Group D favorites France and England both came away with vital wins today.  The French got a comfortable win over co-hosts Ukraine, bringing them to 4 points in the group.  France controlled the game, and capitalized on their dominance through second half strikes from Jeremy Menez and Yohan Cabaye.

The English were made to work much harder for their victory over Sweden.  Andy Carroll got the English off to a great start, heading a brilliant cross from Steven Gerrard in the 23rd minute to the back of the net.  Then England appeared in self-destruct mode, as Olof Mellberg wreaked havoc and eventually put the Swedes up 2-1.

England were determined, however, and impact substitute Theo Walcott changed the game with his introduction.  He got the equalizer in the 64th minute, and set up Danny Welbeck's back-heeled winner to finish the second round of games on a huge high.

While today's wins were important for both nations, the next round of games will be pivotal for each side's hopes of going deep in the tournament.  The round three games (England vs Ukraine, France vs Sweden) of Group D will determine not only who advances to the knockout stages, but who will in all likelihood face the daunting task of playing Spain in the quarterfinals.

One would assume France will go all out for a win against Sweden, who are now playing with nothing to lose.  But the interesting tie to watch will be the England vs Ukraine match.  Ukraine need a win over the English to advance.  While a draw in the match will see England advance, it is immensely important that they do not settle for the draw.  England can win the group, and will most likely avoid Spain in the knockout stages (until the final), with a big win over the Ukrainians.

The Spanish are going for their 3rd straight major title, and France and England will want no part of them in the quarterfinals.

It will be very interesting to see whether England go for it in their final match, or simply play not to lose.  Will they play to meet expectations, and just get out of the group? Or will they play to give themselves a chance to greatly exceed expectations later on in this tournament?

Torres or Fabregas?

Spain dismantled Ireland today, as everyone with a pulse expected.  However, the 4-0 win brings up a big question:  should Fernando Torres or Cesc Fabregas start?

Fabregas started as the "center forward" and scored in Spain's opening draw with Italy.  However, Vincente Del Bosque rotated his squad against Ireland, giving Torres the starting striker spot.  Torres did not disappoint, scoring in the 4th and 70th minute.  Outside of the goals, Torres had a productive game as well. His movement was always a threat, and he made some great chances for himself.

While Torres was impressive, Fabregas came off the bench to bury one within ten minutes of being on the pitch.

With two goals each, who is the better starting option for Spain as the tournament gets into the crucial stages?  Xavi, Iniesta, Xabi Alonso, and Sergio Busquets are all locks to start.  David Silva now seems a favorite of Vincente Del Bosque, and has become one of Spain's leading scorers over the past year. 

So then, its Fabregas vs Torres for the final spot.  Obviously, against the helpless Irish, it never was going to matter who started.  I'm pretty sure I could put one past Given with that Spanish 10 behind me. 

If it were me though, Fabregas would be the starter.  Fabregas seems to be just as clinical in front of goal as Torres,  and he facilitates Spain's possession play better.  Fernando Torres can make a greater impact as a substitute as well, making runs behind a worn out defense.  That, and I still just cannot trust Torres to have this kind of game against a side like Germany.

What do you think?